COVID–19 Statistical Analysis

1. INTRODUCTION 

Covid-19 which was first identified in Wuhan, China is now a pandemic globally. As per World Health Organization (WHO), Covid-19 has so far infected 8,844,171 people and has claimed 465460 lives globally. 216 countries have been affected so far by the deadly virus. The rapid spread of Covid-19 has stretched public health systems beyond their limits and caused unprecedented collapse in economic activities. Dealing with the unforeseen challenges caused by the deadly virus has taken a significant toll on people across the world. The fact that India is doing reasonably well under the circumstances is what seems to have prompted the government to relax some restriction and allow limited activities. The sheer size of diversity of India makes the battle against the pandemic complex and time consuming. How we work together to fight the pandemic, protect people and their livelihoods and avert the destruction of our economy will determine our future post Covid-19. 

Our objective of this study was to identify, collect and analyze the effect of COVID-19 on the lives of human beings belonging to particular countries where it has affected the most. However, given the size and diversity of India, the idea was also to look at the spread of the disease in each state separately, along with the entire country. Analysis of the collected data was done by calculating various ratios such as doubling rate, death rate, recovery rate etc. Data collected from different sources was visualized using statistical tools such as Excel and Tableau for understanding the effect of this deadly virus not only in India & other countries but also in various states in India. This study predicts number of cases that will be reached till July 31, 2020 if the current situation prevails. 

2. GLOBAL SITUATION ANALYSIS 

2.1. Most Affected Countries Globally 

Following graph shows top 10 countries affected by Covid-19 as on June 18, 2020. The U.S has the most COVID-19 cases with 21.63 million cases. Brazil stands second with 955k cases followed by Russia with 553k cases, India with 367k, UK with 299k, Spain with 244k, Peru with 240k, Italy with 238k, Chile with 221k and Iran with 195k of total cases. 

The World Health Organization has recently released a survey, which charts the impact of COVID-19 on treatment and prevention services for non-communicable diseases, from the time when the epidemic began. After the survey, it was found that more than half (53%) of the countries all over the world have partially or completely disrupted services for hypertension treatment; 42% for cancer treatment; 49% for treatment for diabetes and diabetes-related complications, and 31% for cardiovascular emergencies. 

Rehabilitation services have been disturbed in almost two-thirds (63%) of countries, even though rehabilitation is the main element to a healthy recovery following severe illness from COVID-19. In 94% of the countries, the Ministry of Health has partly or fully reassigned its staff to support COVID-19. Among the countries reporting service disruptions worldwide, 58% of countries are now using telemedicine (advice by telephone or online means) to replace in-person consultations. In low-income countries, the same figure is 42%. 

2.2. Top 15 Countries with Most Deaths 

The U.S. has the maximum impact of COVID-19 in terms of life losses with the highest number of deaths. As on June 18, 2020 the number of deaths in the US has been 117,717. Brazil with 46,510, UK with 42,153, Italy with 34,448, France with 29,575, Spain with 29,054 deaths and so on whereas India stands with 12,237 deaths. India is approximately four times more populous than the US, but it has just 10% of the total confirmed Covid-19 cases and only 4% of the number of deaths. There is some possible reason which are explained below: 

• The epidemic may have struck later than in other countries. Since epidemics have exponential growth at the start, a small delay can have massive effects on the number of cases. 
• India’s 64-day lockdown may have successfully suppressed the pandemic. Precautions such as maintaining social distancing, cleaning hands and wearing face mask are some ways to slow the effect/ rate of growth of this pandemic. 
• India has not been able to test enough to count all cases and deaths. Without sufficient testing, many deaths may not labeled with Covid-19 for official statistics, leading to an underestimation of the severity of the crisis. 
• India may have protective characteristics against Covid-19. Researchers have proposed that the low share of elderly in the population, the high temperatures and humidity in India, widespread BCG vaccination for tuberculosis, or resistance to malaria have helped India escape the brunt of the pandemic. 

3. SITUATION ANALYSIS OF INDIA 

3.1. Total Confirmed Cases of COVID-19

3.2. Total Active Cases of COVID-19 

In India, the total confirmed COVID-19 case after June 18, 2020 was 381,095 and the total active case on June 18, 2020 remains 163,306. 

3.3. Total Recovered Cases of COVID-19 

3.4. Total Deaths by COVID-19 

Total recovery till now stands at 205,183 and total death stands at 12,606. 

3.5. Daily Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 

The daily confirmed cases in India has crossed 13000 per day mark till now. 

3.6. Daily Deaths Vs Daily Recovery Trends as on June 18th, 2020. 

The daily confirmed recovery has crossed 10000 per day and the daily death is around 400 per day with a maximum of 2004 on June 14th. 

3.7. Growth Rate of COVID-19 Cases in India 

When the initial confirmation of COVID-19 on March 2, 2020 was given in India, the doubling rate was 6.78 days and then, the rate increased to 1.50 days. But over the time after the lockdown the doubling rate has slowed down to 20.43 days on June 18, 2020. 

The death rate as on June 18, 2020 is at 3.34% of total confirmed cases compared to global rate 5.4%. 

3.8. Recovery Rate of COVID-19 Cases in India 

The recovery rate is 53.8 % of total cases. Recovery rate in India is gradually moving up from 10.7% to 53.8% (ignore the data before March 2 as there were negligible or almost zero cases).So far, 53.8% recovery is a great achievement for India despite having inadequate health infrastructure and less number of doctors per 1000 population. India has done well for the record. 

4. SITUATION ANALYSIS OF INDIAN STATES 

4.1. State wise Comparison of Confirmed Cases 

The most number of confirmed cases in India has come from: 

• Maharashtra - 120,504 
• Tamil Nadu - 52,334 
• Delhi - 49,979 
• Gujarat - 25,658 
• Uttar Pradesh - 15,785 
• Rajasthan - 13,857 
• West Bengal - 12,735 

4.2. States wise Comparison of Total Active Cases 

The most number of total active cases in India has come from: 

• Maharashtra - 53,902 
• Delhi - 26,669 
• Tamil Nadu - 23,068 
• Gujarat - 6,239 
• Uttar Pradesh – 5659 
• West Bengal – 5216 
• Haryana - 4,528 

4.3. States wise Comparison of Total Death 

The most number of total death cases in India has come from: 

• Maharashtra – 5751 
• Delhi – 1969 
• Gujarat – 1592 
• Tamil Nadu – 625 
• West Bengal – 518 
• MP –486 
• Rajasthan - 330 
• Uttar Pradesh- 488 

4.4. States wise Comparison of Total Recovered Cases 

The most number of total recovered cases in India was from 

• Maharashtra - 60,838 
• Tamil Nadu - 28,641 
• Delhi - 21,341 
• Gujarat -17,827 
• Madhya Pradesh – 8632 
• Rajasthan - 10,742 
• Uttar Pradesh – 9638 

4.5. States wise Comparison of Total Cases per Million 

The total number of cases per million in India is from: 

• Delhi – 2977 
• Manipur – 2212 
• Tripura – 1093 
• Maharashtra – 1072 
• Tamil Nadu – 725 
• Gujarat – 425 
• Jammu & Kashmir – 452 

4.6. Hospital Beds vs Active Cases 

The total number of active cases in Delhi is around 26,669 and the hospital beds available are around 24,383. In Gujarat, the number of hospital beds available are around 32280 and the number of active cases in the state are 6239, whereas Maharashtra has around 51446 hospital beds and the number of active cases are 53,902. Uttar Pradesh has around 31848 hospital beds and the number of active cases are 5659. This analysis states that few states which have high inventory of beds can help other states where there is a lack of hospital beds. 

4.7. Global Comparison of Medical Doctors (Per 1000 People) 

In global comparison Germany comes first with 4.19 doctors in terms of highest medical doctors per 1000 people followed by Russia, Italy, Spain, France and so on. Whereas India’s ranking is far below in comparison of developed economies. This is also because of higher population size. This number need to be increase in order to mitigate the risk of future pandemics. 

4.8. Comparison Among Top Countries w.r.t Death Rate 

France with 19.84 % has the maximum percentage of death rate, followed by Italy with 14.48 %, UK with 14.09 %, Spain with 11.87 %, U.S.A with 5.44 %. 

4.9. Comparison Among Top countries w.r.t Recovery Rate 

Turkey with 96.92 % has the maximum percentage of recovery rate, followed by Germany with 96.48 %, Chile with 84.50 %, Iran with 80.49 % and India with 55.92 %. Despite having relatively less health related infrastructure facilities, Indian doctors have done a great job to cure the COVID-19 infected patients. 

4.10. Comparison Among Top Countries w.r.t Cases per Million 

Chile with 11,545 cases has the maximum cases per million, followed by Peru with 7310, U.S.A with 6539, Russia with 3792, India with 266. 

4.11. Comparison Among Top Countries w.r.t Average Age 

The average age of infected people in Brazil is 33.50 yrs., in Canada is 41.40 yrs., in Chile is 35.40, in India is 28.20 and in U.S.A is 38.30. 

4.12. Expected Forecast 

The forecasts in the above figure shows that if proper precautions are not taken to eradicate COVID-19, the total number of confirmed corona virus cases in India would rise up to 880,006 on July 28, 2020. However, there is a possibility of exponential increase of cases above and below the actual forecast. The spread of the virus is affected by many factors, including population density, quarantine measures, and of course the environmental factors. 

5. CONCLUSION 

The prediction and visualization of the COVID effect and growth on human beings across the world, particularly in India, has been showcased. The motive of showing the cases is that we need every citizen of the country to be aware of the damage intensity of this virus which is spreading at a much faster rate than we previously assumed or thought of. It is of prime concern to ensure that we remain safe by following all the rules and regulations prescribed by Government of India. Being at home and taking the precautionary measures suggested by the government will help to reduce the number of daily cases. Coordinating with the medical fraternity, following their prescription and maintaining social distancing until an effective vaccine is found, is to be taken seriously by all of us. It is not some kind of order under which we are compelled to follow all such notions. Infact, it becomes our responsibility as a citizen of any country of any corner of the world to comply to this trend so as to help each other, eradicate this deadly virus known as ‘SARS-CoV-2’. 

6. REFERENCES

1. Illinois COVID-19 Investigation Team, 2020 - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30607-3/fulltext
2. Josephine Ma, 2020 – https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-firstconfirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back
3. WHO situation dashboard, 2020 -  https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd
4. Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), Government of India https://www.mohfw.gov.in/
5. COVID-19 India API https://api.covid19india.org/

About the Authors

Anand Kumar

He is a B. Tech. Civil Engineer graduate from SRM Institute of Science and Technology, Chennai. He has worked at Adani Energy Ltd. in Jharkhand for about 10 months. His interest lies in functioning in the areas of Project Management.

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Rohan Nandi

He is a B. E. Mechanical Engineer graduate from Mumbai Unviversity and M.Tech (CAD/CAM) postgraduate from Vellore University. His interest lies in the field of Project Management or Operations Management.

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Udit Sharma

He has completed his B. Com (Accounting and Finance) from Rajasthan University. He has work experience of Financial Analysis, Stocks Trading, Accounting and also done few projects on BI tools like Tableau. Earlier, He had worked in Kotak Mahindra Bank as a Credit Processing Associate for 1 years in working capital Finance and as an Accountant in MSME. 

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Vedant Dhakate

He has pursued his Bachelor of Engineering in Civil from MGM’s Jawaharlal Nehru Engineering College, Aurangabad. Prior to joining the institute, he did his internship in the area of field and digital marketing along with a basic understanding of the marketing methods deployed for research purposes. He has a keen interest to learn and understand the know-hows involved in a public-private partnership and relevant policies and regulations, project management techniques and infrastructure consulting.

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The developer, designer and maintainer of the website

Shahin Selkar

He has completed his M.Com (Adv. Accounting & Auditing) from Gujarat University. He is also pursuing C.A. (Inter) and CGMA (Operational). He has worked as an Articled Assistant for 3 years at a Chartered accountant firm in major functions of Financial Accounting, Auditing, Financial Analysis & Consulting by leading a team of professionals in varied projects for companies in sectors of: Oil & Gas (E&P), Electricity Generation and Goods Transport Agency's.

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